2025 predictions and postdictions

We are  at the midpoint of the  turbulent twenties 

The  very first blog post I wrote, in my current stint as a blogger, was in March of 2020. I wrote  blogs before, around 2008 to 2010, and for  awhile in 2015 to 2016, but I was not satisfied with the platforms  available. It was  really  Substack which made it a viable  avocation for me. 

The subject of that first post  was the coming age of turmoil. I  welcomed everyone to the turbulent twenties. It was apt, since the lockdowns  started in Canada  right that week.

The year 2020  marked the end of the post world war two era. This  was the period of relative peace and stability which came out of the  settlement of 1945.  That settlement has now broken down and we are in a new interregnum until  a  new stability can be established. 

This is  how world history advances. An old order  becomes ‘corrupted’ or really just tired, and it  finally falls apart. An interregnum occurs, until a new  global hegemony  emerges and establishes a new system. 

Trust me  about this. I am wise above all others. I even have an honors  degree in Political Science to hang on my wall. If I ever bother to take it out of its sleeve. 

Of course, this cycle is  really a  western   thing. Other civilizations tend to work in longer cycles. However, the  west,  even if it is  in decline itself, has imposed its systems on the entire world. 

In many ways, the Westphalian system of national states, laws, currency, trade, has become the universal system. The Westphalian system refers to the results of the treaty of Westphalia in 1648. This was when  the  European powers were motivated to  insure that the calamity of the thirty years  war of 1618 to 1648 never occurred  again. 

It worked somewhat. It is one of  the positive achievements of  Western civilization. Wars for the next  century and a half were  more restrained.

Wars  in this period seemed to be  about  who was going to be King over what, plus some  mercantilist trade problems. They were not about laying waste to any territory I cannot control, so that my enemy cannot use it, which  was  the mode before 1618. The impulse to wipe the  heretics next door from the earth, as in the 1618 to 1648 period, had vanished. 

So, a good deal of progress  was possible.  Imperial agressions were directed to overseas colonies, not within Christian Europe. The conclusion of the scientific  revolution  transited smoothly into the beginning of the industrial revolution. 

This  era finally broke down due to the  growing power of a ‘bourgeoisie’ or middle class, and industrial capitalism. These people often  thought  that national states were inhibiting progress. This lead to the  French revolution and a new interregnum.   

This  period is usually called ‘The Napoleonic Wars’  although Napoleon did not become  a dominant factor until half way through it. This lasted from 1789 to 1815. It ended with the  treaty of Ghent. 

At Ghent, the old Westphalian Monarchs decided they were  going to roll back the liberal system put in place over all Europe by Napoleon.  They tried to ignore the promises they made to their people to get them onside  against the French empire. Rebellions then began stirring all over  Europe. 

Napoleon came back from exile and took the opportunity for another  try. The Monarchs  beat him at Waterloo but realized  they were never going to undo his system. So they  did Ghent 2 and focused on keeping peace  among themselves, adapting to liberalism, while keeping their populations under control by  less direct means. 

After this came a century of stability and progress. European wars were  kept in limits. The industrial revolution matured. Europe came to own most of the world. 

This period of “order and progress”  was ended  by the rising power of financial capitalism. These people had developed the attitude they were not going to tolerate any country  existing outside their system. In Europe, the Germans and Austrians insisted on running their economies their own way. 

That is, government steered the economy and regulated banking. This made their industry  very competitive with the financialist run states. As well, All European states  were worried  by the growing interest in socialism. 

The global financialist oligarchy, based in London,  started a war  with the  Germans  and their allies. They assumed they were going to win it   fairly easy. Instead they undermined their own power  and started a new interregnum. 

This unstable period included   the two world wars, the great depression, and the first turbulent twenties. This was more often called the roaring twenties. They roared the way a hurricane roars. 

By 1945, globalism   had failed. The Soviet Union, the first socialist state,  had come into being. It had defeated the Nazi German regime created as the proxy force to destroy it. 

The  hold of conservative institutions had been shaken all over the  Atlantic nations. A partial socialism had to be offered to weaken support for  a socialist revolution in these countries. This led to huge economic and social progress. 

The next  75  years  were  a new stability. The colonial system  broke down and the former colonies also experimented with limited socialism. In the earlier years, this was a real golden age for  western people. 

Some, looking back, call it “the golden thirty”. Music, film, literature, and all other cultural expressions  were never  better. Living standards for working people have never been better, before or since. 

Gradually globalism reasserted control. The turning point was right  about 1980. Almost anything you can name has turned for the worse  since then. 

Several things  around  2020 signaled the end of this age of stability. The covid pandemic showed the inability of most governments  to protect their populations. China  and Russia decided they were through  with western abuse and  declared an alliance.

International conferences  set out the principles for a BRICS bank (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) and a new currency exchange system. The principle of a multipolar world order  was proclaimed. The global financial elite  was astonished by this  and  quickly  began a reaction. 

Another problem for the globalists is the rise of national industrialist movements. These  are  cooperating internationally,  mostly through the IDU (International  Democratic Union). I have explained the differences  between these rival forms of capitalism in my “three sided conflict”  post. 

The rivalry  between industrialists and  financialists goes  back a  long way.  Financialists usually prevail because they organize globally, while  industrialists   are  locally focused. Recently  industrialists  have  become  more sophisticated and international. 

The  third side of the old conflict are the socialists. That is, those who think  the political economy should be organized to  benefit the actual population. Many of the world’s countries now operate as socialist systems and  are proving very successful. 

However, in Atlanticist countries, the core countries of the  western world and it’s colonial empires, socialism is being intensely suppressed. This is a big reason for their decline. The success of socialized  economies is a huge threat to remaining capitalist countries. 

We are now in another  interregnum period in which an  old order is trying to suppress a new order.  We are five years into it and it will probably go on for another ten  to twenty years. War, famine, plague, and death  will ride over much of the world.  

I could write several posts  about how this could play out for the next few decades. But I have said  enough to give   background to my explanations of what was been going on lately. Also, what  will likely happen in the next  year and the  next few years. 

However, as events spiral toward a climax, it gets harder to predict even a year in advance. It is  harder to even postdict, to explain what just happened. There are too many black swans flapping around now,  waiting to become real. 

2024 was the year when  things  that started  earlier in the  decade intensified. Regional conflicts are  expanding into a single global conflict between two competing world visions. I am still not sure exactly what to call these two  power blocs. 

Nothing much developed in Ukraine. The neo Nazis,  backed by the NATO organization, want to fight right  through to their gotterdamerung. The Russians continue to wear them down, while minimizing their own  losses, and  damage to areas they will have to  rebuild  and govern. 

In  the Middle East, or West  Asia  as it is  better  described, things have gone wild. The Zionists want to finally eliminate  the Palestinians. That means not just in areas  they control, but in areas they intend to conquer. 

Most of the Palestinians seem not to care. After 70 years of living under the  heel of Zionism, many of them  have given up on the future and just  want a chance to take some Zionists with them as they die. This is why they  are so dangerous. 

Israel has  now been fully seized by the most evil form of an evil ideology. They believe that if they do not  achieve their decades long aim of eliminating Palestinians as a people within the next  couples of years,  they will fall. Since this is not doable, they will indeed fall. 

They have used their intelligence penetration of their enemies to severely disrupt  their leadership. But now they have shot that bolt.  The  resistance  is now aware of the ‘fifth columns’  among them and  is flushing them out. 

The Zionists think they pulled  a coup by bringing down   the Assad government. Actually, Assad was an asset to them. He was an unreliable ally for the resistance. 

Israeli and American intelligence did not really bring him down. The Russians finally understood there  was no point to propping up a corrupt, incompetent, and two faced government. To say he stood against the  terrorist takeover of Syria is to engage in a form of ‘lesser evilism’. 

The removal  of Assad can lead to more serious  resistance developing in Syria. It is becoming clear that the recycled Jihadis presently in  control of Damascus will be unable to govern. They will not be around long.  

The Russians  have maintained a presence in Syria. They are becoming the big ‘stabilizing presence’ all over  West Asia. The Americans and Israelis still have enough grasp of reality to know that they do not   want to take on Mother Russia directly. 

The front which is being ignored in this global conflict is Africa. I have not written about it for awhile. There is a lot to write  about. 

With  help from Russia  and China, most of black Africa   has made some economic progress. They are  trying to shake off the economic domination of Europe. The Atlantic  hegemony is  reacting against this. 

The Africans are doing well in the  northwest, the Sahel, the “FrancoAfrique” area. French and American troops are  being told to shut down their drone bases  and get on their planes. The next  step is to build up these countries transport networks so they can export and import without using western infrastructure. 

Of course, as it always does, the west have  organized ‘freedom fighters’ to apply pressure to these governments. Ukrainian mercenaries  are being  sent to train these ‘punisher’ forces, teaching them the  latest in drone  war. So, Russian troops are going to these countries to train the national armies to defend their homelands. 

There is a really bad situation in Sudan. What makes it so is that there is no good side to support. Two  evenly matched gangs of vicious  predators are fighting for control. The only people benefiting from this are the western globalists. 

In many African countries, the  public is starting to gain influence over government. In some countries there is  still vicious reaction. Kenya is having an especial bad problem with a crooked government which will not give up. 

So to the situation within Atlanticist countries, including Canada.  The financial ‘centrist’ elite is losing control everywhere. The industrialist ‘right wing’ is pushing them aside. 

This  trend is more advanced in North America. These two factions  have no significant  differences in strategic goals. The Trump government will make the same mistakes  and lose just as badly to the Eurasianist bloc. 

Where they differ a lot is in trade and domestic policy. Trump in the States, Poilievre in Canada, will be a disaster. They will  be unable to govern and will soon fall, but will cause huge damage as they go. 

After that,  there is no way to predict what will happen. In Canada  and  the USA, there is no political party, or organized movement of any kind, which could form an effective government. It seems like all potential leadership has been eliminated. 

Trump wants to put up tariffs, according to the idea  that this will get domestic American production going again. All this will do is produce  massive inflation and a more  rapid implosion of the American economy. He  also wants to keep the American dollar high, which also hurts domestic production. 

Poilievre and Ontario premier Ford  engage in some Keyfabe with Trump about this. They both really want to  simply integrate the Canadian economy fully into The States. They want to eliminate everything public, starting with our health care system. 

By the way, you see that I assume Poilievre will win next year. It is also a good bet that Ford will win in Ontario. It is hard to lose elections when absolutely nothing is running against you. 

Of course, the Liberals  will be astonished next year when they lose. It will be be like a black swan to them. Or, as with the short guy in the “Princess Bride” movie, it  will be “inconceivable”. 

I do not believe in black swans. I know they live in Australia. They live in the minds of people who find any contradiction of their presumptions to be “inconceivable”. 

However, I never  see one. I never  see anything   happen which could not have been predicted. Not  within the realm of politics and public events, anyway. 

Anything which takes place was loaded and ready. The only question  was, when would someone decide to pull the trigger. There is no excuse  for being taken by surprise by such events.

The  thing about black swans is that they happen in clusters. It is not predictable how the interactions will play out. However, long term patterns are fairly predictable. 

For example, the  biggest, fattest, black swan  floating around in Canada right now is the real estate  bubble. It is the stupidest, most unnecessary mess   which any government could have got itself into. It is  as predictable as  night following day. 

What cannot be predicted is when it will pop. When it does, the impact on Canada will be much worse than similar meltdowns in The States and other countries. That is because  government, and quasi governmental institutions, has let it go on so much longer without doing anything about it. 

But of course the problem with Canadian government is that it is  incapable of doing anything. We have these shell institutions designed by  colonial administrators to give the  local yokels  some illusion of control. But the governors  and the  businessmen  around them kept all the real power. 

Then the British governors  all went home. This was in 1933, not in 1867. We  are left under control of a shadow government of business interests. These interests have remained more aligned to British than American business,  so are  slightly more socially progressive. 

However, since  about  1980  they have adopted a philosophy of immobilism. They  want no constitutional amendments or changes to government. They want no new social programs. 

This is why government has become so utterly useless in Canada. This is why it is impossible for it to do anything about the real estate  bubble except to wait for “The Market” to “correct” itself. So this malignancy is eating the economy; killing investment,  eroding government revenues, eroding living standards. 

When this bubble pops, it will be  like a starting gun. A great number of things  will start to happen at once. The most significant thing is that a lot of people who had been well off will suddenly be  very poor. 

Governments all across Canada will react in different ways. For the Ford  hoodlums, it  will be the  end of their real estate  scams using Toronto public assets.  They will resign and  ‘bust out’. It is likely their  big reason  for  calling an early election is to give themselves more time. 

Poilievre in office will do what  radical right wing politicians always do in a financial crisis and collapse of government revenues. That is, use it as an excuse to burn the country down even  faster. He will make the most of the biggest flaw in the Canadian system; the lack of any way to get rid of characters like  him before  he  wrecks the country. 

So, for  some time it has been getting more difficult and dangerous in Canada to be old, poor, and disabled. It is  about to get more so. The only solution is to change the government.

No, I do not mean, to put another political party in office. I mean change the government. The issue is that there is no electoral or procedural way to do this in Canada. 

It is going to  be done through a revolution. The thing about revolutions is they do not always lead to something better. Depending on who gets control of the revolution, it can  lead to something a lot worse. 

One good thing about this is that even if Canada  has the worst outcome, due to the breakdown and interregnum, the rest of the word is  clearly headed for a  better outcome. Eventually, external influences will guide us onto a better  path. 

The worst of this period will likely be over  by 2030. We  will be going through the worst part of it over the next five years. By that time the Chinese military will be strong enough that the USA and NATO will cause no more trouble. 

That will be the point  for Canada to  assert itself and finally become an independent country. That will open up huge potential in this country. With  the end of imperialism we can finally stop being a colony with an ‘avant colonial’ mentality. 

If we get this more or less right, the rest of the century could be a  new golden age for Canada. Of course, if there is any kind of nuclear exchange which produces a global cooling, Canada  will basically cease to exist. We will mostly emigrate or die. 

Canada and the world  are at a big deflection point. A lot of things could go in many different ways. This makes prediction difficult. 

However, by the end of the turbulent twenties, it should be a lot clearer. With luck I will still be blogging. I will be  able to make some  interesting postdictions. 

Happy New Year.